: We simulated the potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV) following the introduction of a single infectious individual in a generic population, based on epidemiological parameters derived from a human-to-human historical outbreak. Under current available evidence, our analyses suggest that, within 4 months from the index case's symptom onset, the expected outbreak size is unlikely to exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of epidemic extinction, particularly when > 50% cases are effectively isolated from the start of the outbreak.
Scenario analysis for potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV)
Marziano, Valentina;De Bellis, Alfredo;Molina Grané, Carla;Menegale, Francesco;Lucchini, Lorenzo;Manica, Mattia;Guzzetta, Giorgio;Poletti, Piero;Merler, Stefano
2026-01-01
Abstract
: We simulated the potential community spread of Andes virus (ANDV) following the introduction of a single infectious individual in a generic population, based on epidemiological parameters derived from a human-to-human historical outbreak. Under current available evidence, our analyses suggest that, within 4 months from the index case's symptom onset, the expected outbreak size is unlikely to exceed 50 cases, with a high probability of epidemic extinction, particularly when > 50% cases are effectively isolated from the start of the outbreak.File in questo prodotto:
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