A multi-objective optimization approach in defining the decarbonization strategy of a district heating network: A case study of Oslo

This study investigates the decarbonization of the Oslo district heating network by, firstly, modeling its current framework using EnergyPLAN and, afterwards, exploring optimized solutions, in terms of CO2 emissions and total annual cost, combining EnergyPLAN with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Alternative scenarios are explored based on nine decision variables (energy technologies), each constrained by upper and lower boundaries defined by a specific set of criteria. In this work, the exploration of 20,000 solutions is performed following a four-step approach that starting from a broad availability of the decision variables, step by step adds new constraints. In the first step, heat pumps and waste heat recovery were recognized as the most cost-effective decarbonization solutions. The second step, avoiding the use of heat pumps, shifted the focus to more costly electric boilers. The third step, excluding also electric boilers, resulted in favoring biomass boilers, but with an additional cost increase. In the final step, carbon capture and storage became the only feasible decarbonization option and highlighted the difficult decarbonization with a steep Pareto front. Overall, this study confirms that, in line with recent system-oriented literature but extending beyond technology- or case-specific studies, waste heat recovery and electrification-based sector coupling emerge as the dominant cost-optimal decarbonization pathways at the system level.