A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November.
Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy: from coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017
Manica, Mattia;Guzzetta, Giorgio;Poletti, Piero;Merler, Stefano
2017-01-01
Abstract
A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November.File in questo prodotto:
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