Forward and Inverse Virtual Metrology for Phototransistor Gain: A Hierarchical, Uncertainty-Aware Approach for Small Production Datasets

The customization, optimization and stabilization of the process flow of a silicon bipolar phototransistor commits months of cleanroom time before a finished device can be measured, so a model that predicts device gain from process parameters before a run has value out of proportion to its accuracy. We study this problem on a real fabrication history, thirteen to fourteen process runs of a single device: a small-sample, hierarchically structured setting unlike the large-corpus regime of conventional virtual metrology. Decomposing the variance of device gain, we find that roughly half of it lies between process runs rather than within them, so recipe-only prediction is bounded by construction. Building on these findings we provide a forward gain predictor with a relative, uncertainty-aware signal, an inverse search that returns recipes for a target gain, and, as the foundation for all of it, a multi-level data-quality assessment tailored to the nested physical entities of fabrication (batch, wafer, die) with an explicit cross-level linkage score. The normalized dataset and analysis code are released for full reproducibility.