Preliminary steps in co-design for climate change adaptation and mitigation tools in the tourism sector: a case study in the NEVERMORE project

Mountains are considered a hotspot of climate change due to a more pronounced increase of average temperature vs. the global average, almost twice compared (Adler et al.,2022; APPA,2022a). The Autonomous Province of Trento in Trentino (Italy) is currently developing its Strategy for Mitigation and Adaptation to climate change. It is also a partner of the NEVERMORE project consortium (Horizon EU 2022-2026, GA Nº101056858S) and its territory is one of its five Case Studies in Europe. NEVERMORE overall consists of 16 organizations engaged to support excellence for research on climate science and climate policy. The project focuses on modelling theory, to overcome the common silo approach and to support the development of an integrated assessment, one for the analysis of impacts, risks and interactions of climate change in diverse sectors and adaptation/mitigation strategies. Trentino represents one of the Case Study regions - with the Municipality of Sitia (EL), the County of Norrbotten (SE), the Region of Murcia (ES) and the Danube Delta (RO) - that will help deliver and localize the project and its solutions to better understand and tackle climate change as to promote awareness among local stakeholders and communities. In Trentino, the chosen focus is on tourism and its interlinked sectors as water and energy management and biodiversity. Tourism in Trentino (population 540.958) is one of the economic sectors with great impact on the economy and wellbeing, contributing to 7% of provincial GDP (estimated 1,505.5 mln€) a figure that does not consider the impact of investments, daily trippers and other indirect revenues. It is also a sector that features over 1,400 hotel facilities (90,500 bed places) while if considering rentals of private accommodation/second homes these figures increase to 73,400 (480,000 bed places). In 2019, Trentino recorded over 4.5 million arrivals and more than 18.4 million tourism nights, a figure that rises to 6 million arrivals and 32.8 tourism nights considering tourists in second homes, a ratio of 60:1 compared to inhabitants (ISPAT). Tourism is a field strictly interdependent with other key economic sectors in the region such as trade, agriculture, ecosystem services, and particularly the energy sector. For Trentino’s Case Study there are several observed effects of climate change which are the baseline of the current project activities and were reported also by the provincial Position Report on Climate Change (APPA,2022a): a) rising temperatures, marked especially in locations at valley floors (e.g. the estimated temperature increase for Trento is about 2°C compared to the period 1850-1899 and over the last 40 years the variation in average monthly temperatures has been characterized by significant increasing trends, with an average value between 0.03 and 0.05°C year-1 b) a significant reduction in both average seasonal snow depth and duration of snow cover c) the depletion of permafrost and the retreat in glaciers and d) increases in urban heat waves and extreme events. Some other challenges were identified as particularly relevant for the case study’s focus, due to the electricity and water demand in the tourism sector and ski resorts, linked to resource needs for artificial snowmaking, affecting energy and water use (Viesi et.al, 2023; Polderman et al.2020). Consequently, climate change is impacting directly and indirectly the tourism economy with variations on tourism seasons due to shifts of the seasonal snow-cover dynamic, or influence the state of natural capital, safety and wellness and health of local communities. There are also challenges given by competition over resources in various sectors, particularly water (APPA,2022b), by over-tourism in some sites and in some periods and a lack in data availability for data-driven decision making. Within next years’ activities, NEVERMORE aims to develop new models and interactive digital tools for policymakers and citizens, to figure future scenarios and support the creation of more effective adaptation and mitigation policies. One of the pillars of the project, particularly on the local scale, is to ensure the active participation of public and private stakeholders in collaborative activities of co-design, co-creation and co-assessment for models and solutions. The project sets-up a dynamic stakeholder engagement strategy to involve key actors within Local Councils of Stakeholders built from the first project semester in each Case Study region. The approach follows a particular engagement strategy that will help both partners in giving information and receiving feedback from the territory and key stakeholders in being proactive players in understanding how to tackle climate change challenges in their territories. Stakeholders shall support the identification of local challenges and priorities, imagine future scenarios, recommend possible measures and provide inputs for the models and insights for the design of digital tools: a web interface for climate change scenarios, an interactive policy catalogue and a gamification tool to raise awareness on climate change issues. In Trentino, the Local Council was built to foster the encounter and discussion among local key players that represent the tourism sector's needs from various points of view. Stakeholders (between 15 to 30) from diverse fields - representatives of academia, policymakers, natural parks, tourism consortia, media, mountain huts, alpine guides, ski instructors, private businesses as the civil society - meet three times a year. Here, as well as in other Case Studies, collaborative events have already taken place using co-design and co-creation methods to foster collaborative and result-oriented discussion. A first consultation (March 2023) was organized with the goal of understanding and collecting stakeholders’ perceptions on the challenges posed by climate change and for them to initially suggest how their diverse roles could help meet these challenges. Results from collaborative discussions highlight needs for: a) a cultural change and the creation of awareness, b) a change towards more balanced tourist flows, c) the usage optimization of important resources such as water and energy, d) integrated and dynamic policies. A second consultation (May 2023) was organized to examine several measures of both mitigation and adaptation amidst the more connected and exemplifying measures collected in NEVERMORE research activities and in the local policy framework. Selected measures were clustered among the topics of a balanced touristic flow management, integrated management for water, decarbonization and energy efficiency, corporate sustainability, human capital and sustainable mobility. Participants explored awareness, gaps, effectiveness of these measures and reasoned also on the trade-offs or synergies that different measures trigger. The discussion helped acquire more knowledge on bottom-up experiences and on some new active measures. Results have shown awareness, although not in the very detail, on the diverse measures in place for the topics and several responses from territories. An initial identification of gaps has been collected for all topics which will help focus further works of the Local Council and Case Study. Further steps will deal with the local issues of risks, problems and needs, on elements of vulnerability, on future scenarios and their benefits and trade-offs with support of a risk assessment methodology. Next collaborative events are planned in Autumn 2023 and in the following years up to 2026; with a process that will help engage stakeholders in providing important feedback and involve them in project outcomes. This collaborative approach, thus, is fostering a co-creation process that will put focus on local knowledge and information on climate change and will be shared between technical partners of the NEVERMORE consortium, policymakers and other relevant private and public stakeholders.